Book Review: Smaller, Faster, Lighter, Cheaper, Denser: How
Innovation Keeps Proving the Catastrophists Wrong – by Robert Bryce (Public
Affairs Books, 2014)
This was a fun read. Bryce has written much about the
importance of energy density in his other books. Energy journalism is his
specialty. This one is about technological innovation and how it has happened
and keeps happening over time. He focuses here on the notion of density in many
forms.
He begins with the first chapter titled, ‘Moving Beyond Collapse
Anxiety,’ which basically advocates dissing the doom and gloom scenarios and
while staying realistic, becoming a bit more optimistic, especially in regards
to technology. Violence, terrorism, disasters, resources issues, climate
change, etc. all seem to add to the anxiety. He criticizes the focus on “peak
everything” by pointing out that in most cases those peak declarations have
been premature and technology has set them back quite a ways in some cases. He
criticizes “degrowth” and all the categorizing of “this good, that bad” that
seems to go with it. These are the mantras of neo-Malthusians, he says. He also
makes the important point that innovation towards
smaller/faster/lighter/denser/cheaper (S-F-L-D-C) is helping the economy and
the environment. He thinks that the big environmental groups have the right
intentions but propose inadequate solutions. He also notes that energy is the
world’s biggest industry and all parts of the global economy depend directly or
indirectly on energy.
He begins with the Panama Canal and how new technological
innovations after the first attempt to build it allowed it to be built much
faster and much better. It still stands as an amazing engineering feat. He
points out that the gravimetric power density of the brain is 100,000 times
that of the sun. Power density is a measure of how much energy can be used in a
given area, volume, or mass. Energy density is how much energy is ‘contained’
in a given volume or mass.
He notes that Francis Bacon saw the three most important
inventions of his time (1561-1620) as the printing press, gunpowder, and the
compass. Bryce sees the printing press as most important of the three. Prints
got smaller, printing got faster, and books got cheaper. He also lists other
revolutionary innovations and how they made things happen: the vacuum tube
enabled electronic music and rock-n-roll; the AK-47 enabled effective killing
due to being lighter and cheaper so that some 100 million Kalashnikovs have
been made. He also hails the Haber-Bosch Process of making fertilizer where
natural gas and atmospheric nitrogen are the inputs. The output is ammonia
(NH3) fertilizer. This process led to massive gains in grain production. Next
he covers diesel engines and jet turbines and how they enabled globalization.
Diesel engines move more than 80% of U.S. freight. New jet turbines have gotten
more and more efficient with gravimetric power density as much as 15,000 watts
per kilogram. These engines made travel faster and cheaper. Other innovations
he covers are telescopes, microscopes, electric power, the roller-cone drill
bit, digital communications – all of which enabled Smaller Faster Lighter
Denser Cheaper.
Better technology has increased lifespans since the 1600’s.
It has also made raw materials cheaper when predictions were that they would
become more expensive. The key, says Bryce, us that we are continually finding
ways to do more with less. He also notes the reduction in solar panel costs and
great improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency due to cheaper and more efficient
technologies. The book is full of number comparisons and graphs to put these
changes through time in perspective. In many ways we have all gotten safer as
well. The American fatality rate per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled fell
from 4.7 in 1970 to 1.1 in 2009. The fatality rate per 100 million
aircraft-miles fell from 5.438 in 1970 to just 0.688 in 2009. Air quality has
also improved. Annual U.S. emissions of sulfur dioxide have fallen from 23
million tons in 1990 to 14.7 million tons in 2005. VOC (volatile organic
compounds) emissions fell from 23 million tons to 15 million tons in the same
time period. Agricultural food production has drastically increased. Technology
is the key to the chapter title – Never Have So Many Lived So Well.
Next he takes on radical environmentalist calls for
“degrowth,” citing Breakthrough Institute founders Ted Nordhaus and Michael
Shellenberger and their definition of the worldview of these radicals as
“nihilistic ecotheology.” Bryce calls them “eco-nihilists.” Many are catastrophists
who claim that we are headed for disaster. Some venerate the idea that in the
past people lived in peace and harmony – the “primitive harmony” idea of a
world populated by “noble savages.” Greenpeace has been a vocal promoter of the
degrowth movement. Bryce explores and criticizes the degrowth ideas of
Greenpeace, Naomi Klein, the Worldwatch Institute, the Sierra Club, and
grassroots environmentalist Bill McKibben. Bryce refutes McKibben’s idea that
the world needs “low density” food and energy production by noting that
“density is green,” and increasing the density of our food and energy systems
is how we have and will continue to meet the needs of a growing global
population. He goes into mathematical detail to refute McKibben’s plan to reduce
global per capita energy use by twenty-fold and how nonsensical it is. One big
factor is the current poor energy density of renewable energy. Bryce chronicles
the degrowth movement from Rousseau, Thoreau, and Malthus in the 19th
century and before, to the Club of Rome, Paul Erlich, Klein, McKibben, George
Monbiot, Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, and the other “neo-Malthusians,” as he
calls them. He argues that degrowth simply means forced poverty.
Next he explores our ability to measure extremely small
units of space and time: angstroms and attoseconds. These amazing technologies
allow us to study the atomic and subatomic realms in detail. This work with
lasers, tomography, and ionization has many potential practical applications.
He explores speed: from faster runners to faster vehicles to
faster internet. He explains things in terms of energy density. He does this
with biking in the Tour de France, describing changes in riders’ styles, muscle
power, bike design, as well as the effects of doping.
He also reminds us that energy is the capacity to do work
while power is the rate at which work is done. Energy is typically measured in
joules while power is measured in watts.
He covers the giant water wheels of the Hama region in Syria
that were built in the Byzantine era. Energy and power needs have been apparent
for humans since the beginning. At the time these were state-of-the-art
engineering wonders. The work of draft horses gave us the unit of “horsepower.”
One horsepower = 746 watts. An average human can produce power of between
60-120 watts – for comparison. He notes the first known use of windmills around
1300 in the Seistan region of eastern Iran. The Romans used water wheels mostly
to mill grain. Windmills became popular in northern Europe to mill grain, move
water, and for other purposes. Amish people still use teams of draft horses
(while not being known for humane treatment of horses – a practice which should
be encouraged and harms investigated) to plow fields. Canals and locks and dams
in 1800’s America provided transport and places for water wheel power. Some of
the biggest works ran for decades and maxed out at 300 horsepower and in terms
of gravimetric power density, about 1 watt per kilogram – amazing for 1850 –
but tiny today. Watt’s early steam engine only made it to about 24 horsepower
but made it up to 9.8 watts per kilogram gravimetric power density. Thus it was
a massive improvement over waterwheels in terms of power density. The ages of
steam and coal thus began. Steam locomotives in 1865 made it up to about 500
horsepower and 14.2 watts/kg. The giant Corliss steam engine was revealed in
1876 with 1400 horsepower and 20 watts/kg. By 1886, Karl Friedrich Benz
patented a one cylinder internal combustion engine that weighed 211 lbs. and
produced 500 watts of power. The Age of Steam was soon to give way to the Age
of the Automobile. The original Ford Model T had a 300 lb., 121 watts/kg, 22 HP
engine and a power density 73 times that of a horse. Yes, oil freed the horses.
Now Formula One racing engines can pack power densities of 5900 watts/kg!
Engines are now much smaller and much lighter which helps increase power
density.
Next is the trend toward faster computing. Free storage on
ICloud and other massive cloud storage options were enabled by S-F-L-D-C improvements.
The cost of computing has dropped astronomically. He notes that a kid in Africa
with a smartphone has about a trillion dollars of computing power in 1970
terms! Data creation and sharing has skyrocketed and continues to do so. He
does note that then as now large computing facilities still require lots of
cooling and these data centers use a lot of electricity. Bryce has a section
that concludes that “green” computing cannot currently power the cloud. While
companies like Apple, Google, and Amazon have announced and partially
implemented plans to run centers with green energy there are logistical issues.
There is simply not enough space to put solar panels or wind turbines to meet
the power requirements in the populated areas where the data centers sit. By
one estimate data centers consume about 1.3% of global electricity. Other
estimates suggest that 7% of global electricity is consumed just to keep us
connected and 40% of that is powered by coal. In the U.S. 67% or more is
powered by natural gas and coal. Thus, one could say that the internet is
frying the planet. And communications-related electricity demand is growing
rapidly. Bryce also provides trend graphs of the smaller and smaller (and
denser) microprocessor chip configuration as well as trend graphs for the
falling costs of computer storage. He also covers music storage from the lp to
the Ipod.
Next he explores money: from heavy metal coins to paper to
electronic money and phone transfers. Although digital money is not a new idea
the revolution of mobile payments by SIM card on phones has made it quite
convenient around the world. It costs money to print money so digital cash
actually saves money. 40% of all paper money is in China where the yuan
currency’s largest note is the 100-renminby which is worth about 16 U.S.
dollars. The M-PESA digital money scheme is taking off in East Africa. In the U.S.
only some merchants are accepting digital payments. In Kenya there are 19
million M-PESA subscribers, virtually the whole adult population. Although
digital money can be used by criminals it is also used to fight corruption, a
huge problem throughout the world. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have a more
uncertain future. These are more rebellions against centralized banks and seek
more to erode the current financial system.
The density of cities in increasing energy efficiency,
maximizing food, and promoting prosperity is now well known. Per capita energy
use, materials use, services needed, etc. are much lower in dense cities.
Humans all around the world continue to migrate to cities for opportunities.
Mass transportation reduces energy use, pollution, and carbon emissions. Cities
are centers of business and innovation.
Denser cheaper food production has led to wealthier cities
and less hunger. While organic food has surged in popularity and many of us
favor it for reduced pesticide use, it is conventional agriculture fed by
fossil fuels that has done more to feed the hungry than anything else. Both
will be key in feeding the people of the future. Grain production per capita
has managed to increase slightly since 1950 while population has increased steeply
and steadily. That is an amazing feat considering the doomsday scenarios of
Paul Erlich and others that the world would be short on food. For 60 years
after 1950 the world tripled the amount of grain per hectare that can be
produced. Despite detractors GMOs have several potential advantages as does
more efficient use of fertilizer and more efficient and smart farming
techniques. Some even think we have passed “peak farmland” as cultivated areas
around the world are decreasing rather than increasing due to more efficient
production and higher yields.
Next he explores the relationship between faster and freer
information flow and wealth, noting that the countries with the most censorship
tend to be the least wealthy. Faster info flow aids education and innovation
and since we can access it all with our phones it is becoming more and more
essential to have access in order to participate in the modern world. Also
explored are new online education formats that are comparably inexpensive.
Smaller, faster, cheaper medicine has been able to save and
improve lives. Digital technologies can and are improving health care on many
levels. Gene sequencing has made leaps and bounds and genetic influences on
health are becoming better understood and more predictable. Diabetics may no
longer have to prick their fingers in order to monitor blood glucose levels.
Heart disease and cancer are becoming better understand, more preventable, and
more treatable with new technologies. Patients now routinely swallow tiny
cameras to see what is happening in the body. Laser surgeries and 3D printed
prosthetic devices and joints are happening.
Part III focuses on energy and begins with the development
of faster and better drill bits to drill for oil, gas, lithium brine, salt, and
deep geothermal wells. New automated drilling rigs are much safer and more
efficient than old ones. They can drill wells faster. In fact, drilling
efficiencies, depths, and horizontal length capabilities continue to improve.
Shale and tight formation wells have drastically reduced the amount of dry
holes and subsequent loss. The U.S. has long been the leader in oil and gas
technologies, leading the way in hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling,
deepwater drilling, 3D seismic, and other technologies. Technology improvements
have allowed us to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered
from a given reservoir in a given area. This has pushed peak oil and peak gas
into the future as more hydrocarbons can be technically recovered.
Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) drill bits have enabled faster drilling,
particularly in shale. Oil is very energy dense compared to renewable energy
sources which assures its continued use.
Next he mentions a rocket technology to generate power that
uses natural gas and hydrogen and can generate up to 70 MW from the size of a
shipping container. It is a prototype but this may be the future.
Next he covers coal extraction technologies: ways to
extract, process, and transport massive amounts of coal in short time periods.
He also points out that even though coal is both pollution and carbon intensive
there is little doubt that its use will continue to grow in China and
especially India, although recently the rate of growth has begun to drop and
peak coal for those nations is now projected to be sooner. Coal use in the
developed world is mostly dropping except in areas abandoning existing nuclear
like Germany and in areas where coal is cheaper than gas and more readily
available due to both supply and infrastructure like China and Indonesia and
parts of Europe.
Next he delves into battery storage, featuring only one
format among many: Aquion Energy’s saltwater batteries that also use cotton,
charcoal, and manganese – all inexpensive ingredients. While these batteries
have lower energy densities and take up more space than lithium-based batteries
they make up for it in their low cost. They are being deployed in test projects
now. Early tests with lithium batteries on Boeing airplanes resulted in battery
fires so others opted for less energy dense nickel-cadmium batteries. Lead-acid
batteries can also explode in large systems. Batteries need to be deployed in
ways proper to their natures, operating temperatures, and charge/recharge
capabilities but that is all being worked out.
Bryce advocates less use of wind and solar since they have
low energy densities. He points out the problems with wind that he covered in
his book, Power Hungry, incurably low
energy density (although capacity factors have improved in recent years), bird
and bat kills, noise problems, and NIMBY issues. The power density of onshore
wind energy ranges from 0.5 to 2 watts/square meter with 1.2 being the avg. To
replace just current (2014) U.S. coal-fired capacity with wind would require a
land area the size of Italy! Dieter Helm and climate scientist Jim Hansen also
note the limitations of wind and solar, particularly that there is simply not
that much land to host the turbines and panels. Hansen and Bryce both favor
nuclear. The total installed wind capacity of the U.S. (the largest wind energy
producer in the world) reduced CO2 emissions a mere 0.2 % of just 2012 global
emissions, which Bryce termed a “fart in a hurricane.” Quite a lot more wind
turbines would have to be deployed simply to keep up with power consumption
growth.
He terms biofuels a “crime against humanity” in terms of
cost, subsidies, net CO2 emissions loss (or gain), land use, and competition
with food production. The main biofuel of concern is ethanol. Such biofuels
have an “anemic” power density of about 0.3 watts per square meter. 2nd
generation biofuels like cellulosic ethanol fare a little better but are still
far below being economic, sensible, and significantly carbon-mitigating. The
urge to move away from oil and oil dependence and clean energy technology hype
has helped ethanol and other biofuels survive and research is ongoing but hope
has been fading for years now that it will be a solution of any significance. Land
use dedicated to growing crops for biofuels according to Amory Lovins’ scheme
would take a land mass the size of three Italys – land that would be taken away
from growing food. Biofuels, particularly corn ethanol, have long been outed as
a scam as a possible alternative to fossil fuels.
Bryce advocates N2N, natural gas to nuclear, as the energy
solution to climate change. I think Bryce rightly portrays current climate
change debates as devolving into “tribalism,” with alarmist and denier camps
seeming to dominate. If we agree there is too much CO2 the question becomes –
what energy policies should we adopt? Hydrocarbons (coal, oil, and natural gas)
are the cheapest and most reliable forms of energy and will continue to meet
rising energy demand as the developing countries of the world continue to
alleviate energy poverty and increase economic opportunity. Natural gas is the
least polluting, least CO2 emitting hydrocarbon and nuclear is nearly carbon
zero. Natural gas is cheap. Nuclear is more expensive but has lower emissions. Due
to smaller footprints and better energy density Bryce argues that N2N is an
S-F-L-D-C solution.
Nuclear is the most energy dense power source. He notes that
nuclear has about 2100 times the power density of wind energy. An area about ¾ the
size of the state of Rhode Island would be required to replace the Indian Point
nuclear plant (240 acres) with wind turbines. Bryce sees nuclear as our best ‘no-regrets’
option but acknowledges it will take decades as there are few plans for new
nuclear plants in the near-term. A current nuclear power plant costs about 6
times per MW that a gas plant costs. He thinks the dangers of nuclear are
overhyped. While Fukushima changed a lot of minds about the safety of nuclear,
it, along with Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island were not as bad as generally
depicted, says Bryce and many others. Better containment systems are a feature
of new Generation III+ reactors. Small modular reactors (SMRs) can be deployed
on a smaller scale and buried which makes them more resistant to natural
disasters. They can be manufactured in a central location and moved which lowers
costs. Other new designs and prototypes include molten salt reactors which are
safer in the event of a meltdown, integral fast reactors which are safer as
well as self-sustaining, thorium-fueled reactors which could be safer and
eliminate the possibility of weapons proliferation, and traveling wave reactors
– another safer reactor that uses depleted uranium (U-238) as fuel. Bryce also
notes a growing movement among pragmatic environmentalists to promote safer
cheaper nuclear – Stewart Brand and Breakthrough Institute founders Michael
Shellenberger and Ted Nordhau prominent among them.
Bryce sees the U.S. as continuing to dominate innovation and
the move to S-F-L-D-C. However, it would be better if we were to add patent and
education reforms to boost innovation, making new products easier to develop
and new innovators not bogged down with standardized testing and educational
snags. U.S. universities rule on R & D spending and have dominated the
history of innovation and entrepreneurialism.
The U.S. has the best venture capital networks. The U.S. has a wide variety of
energy sources and energy technologies. We have the lowest residential
electricity costs in the world by a significant margin. We have the most
well-developed oil and gas industry and oil and gas infrastructure in the world
and that will continue to give us economic advantages in the years to come.
Bryce concludes by going back to the catastrophists: Paul
Erlich, Bill McKibben, Sierra Club head Michael Brune, Amory Lovins, and other
neo-Malthusian, degrowth, anti-corporate, anti-capitalist advocates. He
advocates for a less pessimistic view that solves problems through innovative
cooperation between industry and the public rather than through excessive
regulation and austerity measures, or as Shellenberger and Nordhaus stated it:
“Wealth and technology liberated us from hunger,
deprivation, and insecurity; now they must be considered essential to
overcoming ecological risks.”
Bryce is a good writer, thoughtful, entertaining, politically
center, and realistic. His outlook is certainly a breath of fresh air and a
move toward sensible policy directions.
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